Ethereum prints 4 consecutive red monthly candles, but data points to an ETH/BTC bottom

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), registered four consecutive red monthly candles after the altcoin dropped 18.47% in March. The altcoin’s current market structure reflects a sustained bearish trend not seen since the bear market of 2022.

With each monthly close taking place below the previous month’s low, analysts are beginning the debate about whether ETH is approaching a bottom or if there is more downside ahead for the altcoin.

Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio hits new 5-year low

On March 30, the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio dropped to a five-year low of 0.021. The ETH/BTC ratio measures ETH’s value against Bitcoin (BTC), and the current decline underlines Ether’s underperformance against Bitcoin over the past five years.

In fact, the last time the ETH/BTC ratio dipped to 0.021, ETH was valued between $150-$300 in May 2020.

Ethereum/Bitcoin 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Data from the token terminal showed Ethereum’s monthly fees dropped to $22 million in March 20205, its lowest level since June 2020, indicating low network activity and market interest.

Ethereum fees represent the cost users pay for transactions, which is influenced by network demand. When network fees begin to drop, it indicates reduced network utility.

Ethereum fees and price. Source: token terminal

Despite the price action and revenue malaise, Ethereum analyst VentureFounder said that the ETH/BTC bottom could occur over the next few weeks. The analyst hinted at a potential bottom between 0.017 and 0.022, suggesting that the ratio might drop further before a recovery. The analyst said,

“Maybe another lower low RSI and one more push downward lots of similarity with 2018-2019 Fed tightening & QE cycle, expecting the first higher high after May FOMC when Fed ends QT & begin QE.”

Ethereum/Bitcoin analysis by venture founder. Source: X.com

Historical odds favor a short-term bottom

Since its inception, ETH has registered three or more consecutive bearish monthly candles on five occasions, and each time, a short-term bottom was the result. The chart below shows that the most back-to-back red months occurred in 2018, with seven, but prices jumped 83% after the correction.

Ethereum monthly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In 2022, after three consecutive bearish months, ETH price consolidated in a range for almost a year, but the bottom was in on the third bearish candle in June 2022. Historically, Ethereum has a 75% probability of having a green month in April.

Based on Ethereum’s past quarterly returns, the altcoin experienced the least number of drawdowns in Q2 compared to other quarters. With the average returns in Q2 as high as 60.59%, the likelihood of positive returns in April.

Ethereum Quarterly returns. Source: CoinGlass

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.